| Summary (2007) | |||||||||||||||||
Abstract | |||||||||||||||||
| In this paper, we analyze unemployment duration in Germany with o#cial data from the German Federal Employment O#ce for the years 1980-1995. Conventional hazard rate models for leaving unemployment cannot cope with simultaneous and flexible fitting of duration dependence, nonlinear covariate e#ects, trend and seasonal calendar time components and a large number of regional effects. We apply a semiparametric hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach that is suitable for time-space analysis of unemployment duration by simultaneously including and estimating e#ects of several time scales, regional variation and further covariates. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. JEL classification: C11, C41 and J64 | |||||||||||||||||
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