Ausz.
Jaeger, Albert., Price, Richard.
One leaf of biography.
Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior
Albert Jaeger, Ludger Schuknecht
Boom and bust phases in asset prices have become a pervasive feature of macroeconomic developments in many advanced economies. This paper studies fiscal policy during boom-bust phases in asset prices...
The Slope of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of Business Cycle Fluctuations
The Slope of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of Business Cycle Fluctuations
The Yield Spread and Macroeconomic Forecasts as Predictors of Real Output Growth
The Yield Spread and Macroeconomic Forecasts as Predictors of Real Output Growth
Cross-Country Evidence on the Predictability of Consumption Growth
Cross-Country Evidence on the Predictability of Consumption Growth
Interest Rates as Leading Business Cycle Indicators
The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates is an excellent leading indicator of business-cycle fluctuations in Austria and Germany. A negative spread signals a slowdown in future...
Since the mid-seventies fiscal policy in many OECD countries has been faced with the problem of rapidly rising public debt. The dynamics of public debt can be traced to two factors: first, the spread...
Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior
Albert Jaeger, Ludger Schuknecht
Boom and bust phases in asset prices have become a pervasive feature of macroeconomic developments in many advanced economies. This paper studies fiscal policy during boom-bust phases in asset prices...
Aus WIFO-Studien: Zinsniveau und Zinsstruktur in Österreich
Aus WIFO-Studien: Zinsniveau und Zinsstruktur in Österreich
Seasonal Adjustment and Measuring Persistence in Output.
Jaeger, Albert, Kunst, Robert M
We examine the robustness of persistence measurement to different seasonal adjustment procedures. The empirical analysis is based on U.S. data for real gross national product (GNP). Officially...
Does Consumption Take a Random Walk? Some Evidence from Macroeconomic Forecasting Data.
Professional forecasts of aggregate U.S. consumption series strongly reject Robert E. Hall's (1978) random walk hypothesis. Band spectrum regressions show that low-frequency variations in growth ra...
The ECB's Money Pillar: An Assessment
This paper discusses the case for a money pillar in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy strategy. Time-series evidence for industrial countries based on frequency-domain and...
Corporate Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment in the Euro Area
The recent boom-bust cycle in the euro area's equity valuations has left nonfinancial corporations saddled with a legacy of high debt or leverage. Models of corporate investment behavior based on...
Mechanical Detrending by Hodrick-Prescott Filtering: A Note.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is widely used to extract cyclical movements about trend in macroeconomic time series. The filter is based on the assumption that nonstationary movements in time series...
Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach.
Jaeger, Albert, Parkinson, Martin
We suggest a new test for hysteresis in unemployment based on an unobserved components model. Observed unemployment rates are decomposed into a natural rate component and a cyclical component. The...