Axel Börsch-Supan

Aging and International Capital Flows 1 (2007)

Axel Boersch-supan, Axel Boersch-supan, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Ludwig, Axel Börsch-supan, Er Ludwig, ...

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of

Quality of work, well-being, and intended early retirement of older employees--baseline results from the SHARE Study (2007)

Siegrist, Johannes, Wahrendorf, Morten, Von Dem Knesebeck, Olaf, Jürges, Hendrik, Börsch-Supan, Axel

Background: Given the challenge of a high proportion of older employees who retire early from work we analyse associations of indicators of a poor psychosocial quality of work with intended premature...

Quality of work, well-being, and intended early retirement of older employees--baseline results from the SHARE Study (2006)

Siegrist, Johannes, Wahrendorf, Morten, Von Dem Knesebeck, Olaf, Jürges, Hendrik, Börsch-Supan, Axel

Background: Given the challenge of a high proportion of older employees who retire early from work we analyse associations of indicators of a poor psychosocial quality of work with intended premature...

Quality of work, well-being, and intended early retirement of older employees--baseline results from the SHARE Study (2006)

Siegrist, Johannes, Wahrendorf, Morten, Von Dem Knesebeck, Olaf, Jürges, Hendrik, Börsch-Supan, Axel

Background: Given the challenge of a high proportion of older employees who retire early from work we analyse associations of indicators of a poor psychosocial quality of work with intended premature...

L'efficacité des incitations pour remédier à l'insuffisance de l'épargne retraite en europe (2004)

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Le volume de l¿épargne retraite privée est très variable en Europe, notamment à cause des différences du point de vue des régimes publics de retraite, de la fiscalité et de la réglementation...

Department Of Economics (2003)

Luigi Guiso, Luigi Guiso, Michael Haliassos, Michael Haliassos, Axel Börsch-supan, ...

We discuss the current state of stockownership among households in major European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK), drawing parallels and contrasts with the US...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this...

Mehr Zuwanderung? : Zur Rolle des Auslands bei der Stabilisierung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Angesichts der anhaltend niedrigen Geburtenraten und der bedrohten langfristigen Stabilität der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung kommt in Deutschland immer von neuem die Diskussion auf, ob eine...

Demographic Change, Saving and Asset Prices: Theory and Evidence

Axel Börsch-Supan, Christopher Kent, Anna Park, Daniel Rees

ageing; international capital mobility; pension policies; OLG overlapping generations

Eine Blaupause für eine nachhaltige Rentenreform in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Auch nach der Rentenreform 2001 wird das Alterseinkommen im wesentlichen von der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung nach dem Umlageverfahren getragen werden. Die weiterhin unterschätzte Alterung der...

A Blue Print For Germany’s Pension Reform

Axel Börsch-Supan

Germany relies almost exclusively on a public pay-as-you-go pension system for old-age in-come provision. This mandatory “retirement insurance” has become under severe pressure, mainly from...

Reduction of Working Time: Does it Decrease Unemployment?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Over and again, the reduction of working time is praised as the instrument against unemployment in Europe. While the first round argument appears obvious – less work for some will create more work...

International Comparison of Household Savings Behaviour: The German Savings Puzzle

Axel Börsch-Supan

This mea discussion paper presents excerpts of the International Savings Comparison Project covering household savings behaviour in seven countries. The whole series of comparative country studies...

Housing Demand in Germany and Japan

Axel Börsch-Supan, Florian Heiss, Miki Seko

Housing Demand in Germany and Japan Paper in memoriam of Stephen Mayo

Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges

Axel Börsch-Supan, Moshe Ben-Akiva, Kenneth Train, Daniel McFadden

We discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation. Such approaches incorporate several elements of cognitive process that...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21 st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Labor market effects of population aging

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other...

Kann die Finanz- und Sozialpolitik die Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt lindern?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Dieser Beitrag versucht, die wichtigsten Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeits-markt zu studieren und daraus Konsequenzen für die Finanzpolitik im weitesten Sinne zu ziehen. Der...

Nach der Reform ist vor der Reform:Weitere Schritte für eine nachhaltige Reform der Altersvorsorge in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Auch nach der Rentenreform 2000 wird das Alterseinkommen im wesentlichen von der umla-gefinanzierten gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung getragen werden. Die zumeist unterschätzte Alterung der...

What We Know and What We Do NOT Know

Axel Börsch-Supan

As the publicly financed pay-as-you-go pension systems in Europe come under increasing pressure, workers and politicians rediscover private savings for retirement in Europe – the provision of...

Mehr Zuwanderung? Zur Rolle des Auslands bei der Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Angesichts der anhaltend niedrigen Geburtenraten und der bedrohten langfristigen Stabilität der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung kommt in Deutschland immer von neuem die Diskussion auf, ob eine...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differ-ential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demo-graphic change alters...

Vom Schnupfen zur Grippe: Der Patient und sein Gesundheitswesen

Axel Börsch-Supan

Das deutsche Gesundheitssystem mag einen hartnäckigen Schnupfen haben, aber mit einem Schnupfen kann man leben, und andere Gesundheitssysteme haben auch ihre Probleme. An der Zukunftsfähigkeit des...

Der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor und andere Formelmodifikationen zur langfristigen Stabilisierung des Beitragssatzes zur GRV

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Christina Benita Wilke

Zwei Jahre nach der "Riester-Reform" befindet sich die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung in Deutschland wieder in Reformnöten. Die der Riester-Reform zugrunde liegenden Annahmen über Demographie und...

Renteneintrittsentscheidungen in Deutschland: Langfristige Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan

Das Rentenzugangsalter ist durch die Finanzierungsprobleme der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung wieder in den Blickpunkt gerückt. In diesem Papier werden die Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen...

Building a Panel Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan, Hendrik Jürges, Oliver Lipps

Ageing is one of the greatest social and economic challenges of the 21st century in Europe. SHARE, a EU-sponsored project that will build up a Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, will...

Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan

The financing problems beleaguering the public pension system have again shifted the spotlight onto the retirement age. This paper examines the impact of various reform options on the actual...

How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The Sustainability Factor in the German Benefit Indexation Formula

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Christina Benita Wilke

Two years after the "Riester reform" the German public pension system is once again in need of reform. The demographic and labor market assumptions underpinning the Riester reform have proved to be...

What are NDC Pension Systems? What Do They Bring to Reform Strategies?

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper has two parts. Part 1 presents the basic ideas underlying notional defined contribution (NDC) systems and discusses their main advantages and disadvantages. We argue that a NDC system is...

Hochrechnungsmethoden und Szenarien für gesetzliche und private Renteninformationen

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Anette Reil-Held

Die gesetzliche Rente als erste Säule der Alterssicherung wird besonders wegen des demographischen Wandels künftig weniger großzügig ausfallen als bisher. Die entstehende Versorgungslücke soll...

From Public Pension to Private Savings: The Current Pension Reform Process in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan

Reforms of the public pension systems are on top of the European policy agenda. Current costs are high, and the pressures will increase due to population aging and negative incentive effects. This...

Gesamtwirtschaftliche Folgen des demographischen Wandels

Axel Börsch-Supan

Die Alterung der Bevölkerung insbesondere in Asien und Europa ist ein historisch einmaliges Ereignis. Es hat in der Vergangenheit mehrere bedeutende demographische Verschiebungen gegeben – aber...

Mind the Gap: The Effectiveness of Incentives to boost Retirement Saving in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan

Pension reforms all across Europe have a common theme: to reduce the generosity of the pay-as-yougo public pension pillar threatened by population aging, and to build up new pillars by private saving...

Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance

Axel Börsch-Supan, Jens Köke, Joachim Winter

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are...

Aus der Not eine Tugend – Zukunftsperspektiven einer alternden Gesellschaft

Axel Börsch-Supan

Einer der großen "Megatrends", der Deutschland in den nächsten Jahrzehnten entscheidend verändern wird, ist der demographische Wandel. Im Jahr 2030 werden aufgrund unserer niedrigen Geburtenrate...

Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions

Axel Börsch-Supan

Global aging will be a major determinant of long run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic and will deeply affect future...

Was bedeutet der demographische Wandel für die Wirtschaft Baden-Württembergs?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Der demographische Wandel ist auch für Baden-Württemberg einer der „Megatrends“ dieses Jahrhunderts, der die politische, soziale und ökonomische Situation des Landes entscheidend verändern...

Altern und Produktivität: Zum Stand der Forschung

Axel Börsch-Supan, Ismail Düzgün, Matthias Weiss

Der Zusammenhang zwischen Alter und Leistungsfähigkeit von Beschäftigten wird in den verschiedensten Disziplinen untersucht - mit zum Teil recht unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen. Dieser Beitrag gibt...

Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Lothar Essig

Demographic change presents major financing problems for the pay-as-you-go pension system. In response to these problems, the 2001 and 2004 German pension reforms reduced the statutory level of...

From Traditional DB to Notional DC Systems: The Pension Reform Process in Sweden, Italy, and Germany

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper provides a critical review of the pension reform strategy that turns defined benefits (DB) public pay-as-you-go-systems into notional defined contribution (NDC) systems. We show that...

An applied econometricians' view of empirical corporate governance studies

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Köke, Jens

The economic analysis of corporate governance is en vogue. In addition to a host of theoretical papers, an increasing number of empirical studies analyze how ownership structure, capital structure,...

Zur Sozialversicherungsfreiheit der Entgeltumwandlung

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Christina B. Wilke

Um eine Gewichtsverschiebung zwischen den einzelnen Säulen der Alterssicherung zu erreichen, wurden in den vergangenen Jahren auch die Rahmenbedingungen für die betriebliche Altersvorsorge...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21 st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Household Portfolios in Germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Eymann, Angelika

This paper describes portfolio choices of German households in the 1980s and 1990s, presenting stylized facts and analyzing recent trends in asset ownership rates and asset shares on the basis of...

Blaupause für eine nachhaltige Rentenreform in Deutschland

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Auch nach der Rentenreform 2001 wird das Alterseinkommen im wesentlichen von der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung nach dem Umlageverfahen getragen werden. Die weiterhin unterschätzte Alterung der...

International Comparison of Household Savings Behaviour: A Study of Life-Cycle Savings in Seven Countries

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Household saving is still little understood, and even the basic facts for instance: How does saving change over the life cycle? Do the elderly draw down their wealth? are controversial. Understanding...

The German Savings Puzzle

Börsch-Supan,Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Rodepeter, Ralf, Schnabel, Reinhold

Germany has one of the most generous public pension and health insurance systems of the world, yet private savings are high until old age. Savings remain positive in old age, even for most low income...

Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Heiss, Florian, Winter, Joachim

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized...

Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren: Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Die demographischen Veränderungen sind Auslöser einer grundsätzlicheren Debatte über Alterssicherungsverfahren, nämlich der Wahl eines effizienten Finanzierungsverfahrens der Altersvorsorge. Im...

Prinzipien der Renten- und Pensionsbesteuerung

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Lührmann, Melanie

Die derzeitige Besteuerung von Renten und Pensionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ist inkonsequent und in sich widersprüchlich. Dies wurde mehrfach vom Bundesverfassungsgericht angemahnt....

Rentenreform und die Bereitschaft zur Eigenvorsorge:Umfrageergebnisse in Deutschland

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Dieses kurze Arbeitspapier stellt die Ergebnisse einer Umfrage vor, die das Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik im Februar/März 2000 bei infratest in Auftrag gegeben hat. Sponsoren der...

A Blue Print For Germany’s Pension Reform

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Germany relies almost exclusively on a public pay-as-you-go pension system for old-age income provision. This mandatory “retirement insurance” has become under severe pressure, mainly from...

Household Savings in Germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Rodepeter, Ralf, Schnabel, Reinhold

This paper describes how German households save, and how their saving behavior is linked to public policy, notably pension policy.Our analysis is based on a synthetic panel of four cross sections of...

Die Furcht vor dem Untergang der Arbeit

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Die Arbeitslosenstatistiken Westeuropas sind gut bekannt, ebenson ihr Verlauf: stark steigend in den Abschwungphasen der Konjunktur, kaum sinkend in den Aufschwungphasen. Zudem ist die...

Privathaushalt oder Heim? Bestimmungsfaktoren der Institutionalisierung älterer Menschen

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Spieß, Katharina

Diese Studie soll den Stand der Forschung in der Bundesrublik in dreifacher Hinsicht vorantreiben: Erstens haben wir durch das Zusammenfügen mehrerer Datensätze erstmals eine für sämtliche alten...

Age and Cohort Effects in Saving and the German Retirement System

Börsch-Supan, Axel

As the public pay-as-you-go pension systems of the aging industrialized countries are likely to become seriously strained under the growing dependency burden, the question arises whether a society...

The Impact of Population Aging on Savings, Investment and Growth in the OECD Area

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Goal of this paper is an assessment of the relevance of the various channels through which population aging affects saving and investment. In a first part, I collect evidence on age-saving,...

European welfare state regimes and their generosity towards the elderly

Axel Börsch-Supan

The paper examines the generosity of the European welfare state towards the elderly. It shows how various dimensions of the welfare regimes have changed during the recent 10-15 years and how this...

Nachfrageseitiger Wettbewerb im Gesundheitswesen

Axel Börsch-Supan

Dieses Papier skizziert grundsätzliche Überlegungen, wie die euphemistisch so genannten „Effizienzreserven“ des deutschen Gesundheitswesens erschlossen werden können. Eine zentrale Rolle...

Pathways to Disability: Predicting Health Trajectories

Florian Heiss, Axel Börsch-Supan, Michael Hurd, David Wise

The paper considers transitions in the health and disability status of persons as they age. In particular, we explore the relationship between health and disability at younger ages (say 50) and...

Rational Pension Reform

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper is motivated by the idea to create, wherever possible, rational mechanisms that adapt pension systems automatically to a changed economic and demographic environment, rather than to leave...

Über selbststabilisierende Rentensysteme

Axel Börsch-Supan

Dieser Beitrag reflektiert über die Suche nach einer „idealen Rentenanpassungsformel“ und anderen Mechanismen der Selbststabilisierung. Er versucht, dieser Suche eine gewisse Systematik zu...

Early Retirement, Social Security and Well-Being in Germany

Axel Börsch-Supan, Hendrik Jürges

Germans retire early. On the one hand, early retirement is very costly and amplifies the burden which the German public pension system has to carry due to population aging. On the other hand,...

Work Disability, Health, and Incentive Effects

Axel Börsch-Supan

Disability insurance – the insurance against the loss of the ability to work – is a substantial part of social security expenditures in many countries. The enrolment rates in disability insurance...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?*

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion -"if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this"- seems plausible, the results of...

The Saving Behaviour of Two Person Households: Evidence from Dutch Panel Data

Euwals, Rob, Börsch-Supan, Axel, Eymann, Angelika

As wives generally are younger than their husbands, and as they also have a higher life expectancy, wives generally have larger incentives to save for old age than their husbands. This paper analyses...

Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz

Axel Börsch-Supan

Individuals are exposed over the life cycle to considerable biometric, economic, family and political risks. Do we have the right institutions to cover these risks efficiently? We use the term...

Was lehrt uns die Empirie in Sachen Rentenreform?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Almost all OECD countries have pension reform at the top of their social policy agendas. This paper explores where empirical analysis might help to shed light on the central questions concerning...

Rational Pension Reform

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper is motivated by the idea to create, wherever possible, rational mechanisms that adapt pension systems automatically to a changed economic and demographic environment, rather than to leave...

Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Lothar Essig

Demographic change presents major financing problems for the pay-as-you-go pension system. In response to these problems, the 2001 and 2004 German pension reforms reduced the statutory level of...

Reduction of Working Time: Does it Decrease Unemployment?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Over and again, the reduction of working time is praised as the instrument against unemployment in Europe. While the first round argument appears obvious – less work for some will create more work...

International Comparison of Household Savings Behaviour: The German Savings Puzzle

Axel Börsch-Supan

This mea discussion paper presents excerpts of the International Savings Comparison Project covering household savings behaviour in seven countries. The whole series of comparative country studies...

Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges

Axel Börsch-Supan, Moshe Ben-Akiva, Kenneth Train, Daniel McFadden

We discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation. Such approaches incorporate several elements of cognitive process that...

Labor market effects of population aging

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other...

Der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor und andere Formelmodifikationen zur langfristigen Stabilisierung des Beitragssatzes zur GRV

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Christina Benita Wilke

Zwei Jahre nach der "Riester-Reform" befindet sich die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung in Deutschland wieder in Reformnöten. Die der Riester-Reform zugrunde liegenden Annahmen über Demographie und...

Renteneintrittsentscheidungen in Deutschland: Langfristige Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan

Das Rentenzugangsalter ist durch die Finanzierungsprobleme der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung wieder in den Blickpunkt gerückt. In diesem Papier werden die Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen...

Building a Panel Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan, Hendrik Jürges, Oliver Lipps

Ageing is one of the greatest social and economic challenges of the 21st century in Europe. SHARE, a EU-sponsored project that will build up a Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, will...

Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan

The financing problems beleaguering the public pension system have again shifted the spotlight onto the retirement age. This paper examines the impact of various reform options on the actual...

How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The Sustainability Factor in the German Benefit Indexation Formula

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Christina Benita Wilke

Two years after the "Riester reform" the German public pension system is once again in need of reform. The demographic and labor market assumptions underpinning the Riester reform have proved to be...

What are NDC Pension Systems? What Do They Bring to Reform Strategies?

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper has two parts. Part 1 presents the basic ideas underlying notional defined contribution (NDC) systems and discusses their main advantages and disadvantages. We argue that a NDC system is...

Hochrechnungsmethoden und Szenarien für gesetzliche und private Renteninformationen

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Anette Reil-Held

Die gesetzliche Rente als erste Säule der Alterssicherung wird besonders wegen des demographischen Wandels künftig weniger großzügig ausfallen als bisher. Die entstehende Versorgungslücke soll...

From Public Pension to Private Savings: The Current Pension Reform Process in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan

Reforms of the public pension systems are on top of the European policy agenda. Current costs are high, and the pressures will increase due to population aging and negative incentive effects. This...

Gesamtwirtschaftliche Folgen des demographischen Wandels

Axel Börsch-Supan

Die Alterung der Bevölkerung insbesondere in Asien und Europa ist ein historisch einmaliges Ereignis. Es hat in der Vergangenheit mehrere bedeutende demographische Verschiebungen gegeben – aber...

Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance

Axel Börsch-Supan, Jens Köke, Joachim Winter

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are...

Aus der Not eine Tugend – Zukunftsperspektiven einer alternden Gesellschaft

Axel Börsch-Supan

Einer der großen "Megatrends", der Deutschland in den nächsten Jahrzehnten entscheidend verändern wird, ist der demographische Wandel. Im Jahr 2030 werden aufgrund unserer niedrigen Geburtenrate...

Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions

Axel Börsch-Supan

Global aging will be a major determinant of long run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic and will deeply affect future...

Was bedeutet der demographische Wandel für die Wirtschaft Baden-Württembergs?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Der demographische Wandel ist auch für Baden-Württemberg einer der „Megatrends“ dieses Jahrhunderts, der die politische, soziale und ökonomische Situation des Landes entscheidend verändern...

Szenarien zur mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklung der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen und der Erwerbstätigen in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan, Christina B. Wilke

Dieses Papier legt Projektionen zur mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklung der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen sowie der Erwerbstätigen in Deutschland vor. Für unser vorsichtig optimistisches Szenario...

Zur Sozialversicherungsfreiheit der Entgeltumwandlung

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Christina B. Wilke

Um eine Gewichtsverschiebung zwischen den einzelnen Säulen der Alterssicherung zu erreichen, wurden in den vergangenen Jahren auch die Rahmenbedingungen für die betriebliche Altersvorsorge...

Eine Blaupause für eine nachhaltige Rentenreform in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Auch nach der Rentenreform 2001 wird das Alterseinkommen im wesentlichen von der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung nach dem Umlageverfahren getragen werden. Die weiterhin unterschätzte Alterung der...

A Blue Print For Germany’s Pension Reform

Axel Börsch-Supan

Germany relies almost exclusively on a public pay-as-you-go pension system for old-age in-come provision. This mandatory “retirement insurance” has become under severe pressure, mainly from...

Übergang statt Untergang: Wider die Furcht vor dem Untergang

Axel Börsch-Supan

Die Arbeitslosenstatistiken Westeuropas sind gut bekannt, ebenso ihr Verlauf: stark steigend in den Abschwungphasen der Konjunktur, kaum sinkend im den Aufschwungphasen. Zudem ist die...

Would you Like to Reform the Pension System?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Tito Boeri, Guido Tabellini

The European welfare states have fundamental problems, in particular high unemployment and a mounting pressure on public pensions. Although these problems have been prominent topics of the political...

Housing Demand in Germany and Japan

Axel Börsch-Supan, Florian Heiss, Miki Seko

National housing markets differ in many aspects, making cross-national studies a fascinating subject. This article sheds light on housing demand in Germany and Japan. The primary task undertaken is...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Kann die Finanz- und Sozialpolitik die Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt lindern?

Axel Börsch-Supan

Dieser Beitrag versucht, die wichtigsten Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt zu studieren und daraus Konsequenzen für die Finanzpolitik im weitesten Sinne zu ziehen. Der...

Nach der Reform ist vor der Reform:Weitere Schritte für eine nachhaltige Reform der Altersvorsorge in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Auch nach der Rentenreform 2000 wird das Alterseinkommen im wesentlichen von der umlagefinanzierten gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung getragen werden. Die zumeist unterschätzte Alterung der...

What We Know and What We Do NOT Know

Axel Börsch-Supan

As the publicly financed pay-as-you-go pension systems in Europe come under increasing pressure, workers and politicians rediscover private savings for retirement in Europe – the provision of...

Mehr Zuwanderung? Zur Rolle des Auslands bei der Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland

Axel Börsch-Supan

Angesichts der anhaltend niedrigen Geburtenraten und der bedrohten langfristigen Stabilität der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung kommt in Deutschland immer von neuem die Diskussion auf, ob eine...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee – „Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben,...

Vom Schnupfen zur Grippe: Der Patient und sein Gesundheitswesen

Axel Börsch-Supan

Das deutsche Gesundheitssystem mag einen hartnäckigen Schnupfen haben, aber mit einem Schnupfen kann man leben, und andere Gesundheitssysteme haben auch ihre Probleme. An der Zukunftsfähigkeit des...

The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be

Axel Börsch-Supan, Christina Benita Wilke

Germany still has a very generous public pay-as-you-go pension system. It is characterized by early effective retirement ages and very high effective replacement rates. Most workers receive virtually...

Mind the Gap: The Effectiveness of Incentives to boost Retirement Saving in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan

Pension reforms all across Europe have a common theme: to reduce the generosity of the pay-as-you-go public pension pillar threatened by population aging, and to build up new pillars by private...

Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions

Axel Börsch-Supan, Barbara Berkel

The paper examines the long-term implications of various reform options on retirement entry decisions and the actual retirement age of older workers. It focuses on the changes in pension legislation...

From Traditional DB to Notional DC Systems

Axel Börsch-Supan

This paper provides a critical review of the pension reform strategy which turns defined benefits (DB) public pay-as-you-go systems into notional defined contribution (NDC) systems. We show that...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within...

Die ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Alterung in Hessen

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held

Der demographische Wandel ist auch für Hessen einer der „Megatrends“ dieses Jahrhunderts, der die politische, soziale und ökonomische Situation des Landes entscheidend verändern wird. In 25...

Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Alexander Ludwig

Public pensions – the primary pillar of old-age income provision – will, in the future, be less generous than they have been in the past, in particular owing to the impact of demographic change....

Risiken im Lebenszyklus Theorie und Evidenz

Axel Börsch-Supan

Der einzelne Mensch ist im Lebensverlauf erheblichen biometrischen, ökonomischen, familiären und politischen Risiken ausgesetzt. Viele meinen, diese wären in den letzten Jahren größer geworden....

Altern und Produktivität: Zum Stand der Forschung

Axel Börsch-Supan, Ismail Düzgün, Matthias Weiss

Der Zusammenhang zwischen Alter und Leistungsfähigkeit von Beschäftigten wird in den verschiedensten Disziplinen untersucht – mit zum Teil recht unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen. Dieser Beitrag gibt...

New Comprehensive and International View on Ageing: The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe

Axel Börsch-Supan, Karsten Hank, Hendrik Jürges

This paper introduces the ‘Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe’ (SHARE). The 2004 baseline study collects data on the individual life circumstances of about 27,000 persons aged 50...

An Applied Econometricians' View of Empirical Corporate Governance Studies

Axel Börsch-Supan, Jens Köke

The economic analysis of corporate governance is in vogue. In addition to a host of theoretical papers, an increasing number of empirical studies analyze how ownership structure, capital structure,...

Household Savings in Germany

Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held, Ralf Rodepeter, Reinhold Schnabel

This paper describes how German households save and how their saving behavior is linked to public policy, notably pension policy. The analysis is based on a synthetic panel of four cross sections of...

Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan

The paper examines the long-term implications of various reform options for retirement entry decisions and the actual retirement age of older workers. It focuses on the changes in pension legislation...

Zum künftigen Stellenwert der ersten Säule im Gesamtsystem der Alterssicherung

Axel Börsch-Supan, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Anette Reil-Held, Christina Wilke

Dieses Papier untersucht, wie sich die erste Säule der Alterssicherung im Laufe des demographischen Wandels entwickeln und welchen Stellenwert die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung im sich...

Capital productivity and the nature of competition

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper measures capital productivity in West Germany, Japan and the United States and links capital productivity to financial performance. We show that West Germany and Japan have significantly...

Social security and retirement in germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Schnabel, Reinhold

This paper describes the German public old age social security program ("Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung") and its incentive effects on retirement decisions. The paper presents the key features of the...

Germany: A social security system on the verge of collaps

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Germany has one of the most generous retirement systems in the world. At the very same time, Germany also faces one of the most incisive population aging processes. The ratio of workers to pensioners...

Privatisierungsmöglichkeiten der Sozialversicherung in Europa

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper argues that the pay-as-you-go systems that dominate the old age social security programs in Europe cannot provide the flexibility necessary to master the demographic changes to come. They...

Das deutsche Rentenversicherungssystem: Probleme und Perspektiven

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This is a translation of SFB 504 discussion paper 97-23 Deutschland verfügt über eines der großzügigsten Rentensysteme der Welt. Gleichzeitig ist Deutschland mit einem der weltweit drastischsten...

Retirement Income: Level, Risk, and Substitution Among Income Components

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette

Summary This paper looks at the sources or retirement income and how these might change in the course of population aging. It stresses four points: Retirement income exhibits a large degree of...

Übergangsmodelle vom Umlage - zum Kapitaldeckungsverfahren in der deutschen Rentenversicherung

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Deutschland verfügt über eines der großzügigsten Rentensysteme der Welt. Gleichzeitig ist Deutschland mit einem der weltweit drastischsten Bevölkerungsalterungsprozesse konfrontiert. Das...

Pension Provision in Germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Schnabel, Reinhold

Aim of this paper is to study the provision of income to the elderly in Germany and to assess whether the German social security system provides an adequate retirement income in a sustainable way....

Incentive Effects of Social Security on Labor Force Participation: Evidence in Germany and Across Europe

Börsch-Supan, Axel

All acros Europe, old age labor force participation has declined dramatically during the last decades. This secular trend coincides with population aging. The European social security systems...

A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the Germany Retirement Insurance System

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This case study evaluates the positive and negative features of the German public pension system and discusses three reasons for its increasing perceived and real difficulties: maturation, negative...

Demographie, Entwicklung und Stabilität der Sozialversicherung in Deutschland

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Die Diskussion über die deutsche Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung kommt trotz einer fast kontinuierlichen Serie von Änderungen und Reformen nicht aus der sozialpolitischen Diskussion heraus. Dieser...

Anreizprobleme in der Renten- und Krankenversicherung

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Negative Anreizeffekte plagen alle Bereiche der Sozialpolitik. Diese negativen Anreizeffekte beziehen sich auf eine Zurücknahme des Arbeitsangebotes, eine Flucht aus der...

Template for International Savings Comparisons Project

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This template provides the prototype for a set of papers from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, UK and US, each describing and explaining household saving. All papers will have...

Pension systems in the Middle East and North Africa: A window of opportunity

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Tumbarello, Patrizia, Palacios, Robert

This study summarizes current policies in the non-OPEC countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Its objectives are to: (a) provide an overview and comparative analysis of the formal...

Pension reform, savings behavior and corporate governance

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Winter, Joachim

France, Germany and Italy, to take the three largest economies in continental Europe, have large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, very thin capital markets, and low capital...

Data and Research on Saving in Germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper describes and evaluates micro data sources on wealth accumulation and savings behavior in Germany. It argues that empirical savings research could derive particularly interesting insights...

Household Portfolios in Germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Eymann, Angelika

This paper describes portfolio choices of German households in the 1980's and 1990's. We present stylized facts and analyze recent trends of asset ownership rates and asset shares on the basis of...

Data and Research on Retirement in Germany

Börsch-Supan, Axel

The German public retirement insurance is one of the most generous and universal pension systems in the world. At the same time, the system is under severe strain due to very strong population aging...

A Blue Print for Germany´s Pension Reform

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Germany relies almost exclusively on a public pay-as-you-go pension system for old-age income provision. This mandatory “retirement insurance” has become under severe pressure, mainly from...

Rentenreform und die Bereitschaft zur Eigenvorsorge: Umfrageergebnisse in Deutschland

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper summarizes the main findings of a survey that explores the relation between pension policy and private savings in Germany. The survey was conducted in February/March 2000. Similar surveys...

How much is transfer and how much insurance in a pay-as-you-go system? The German Case.

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette

Pay-as-you go pension systems are an insurance against the risks of longevity-related old-age poverty and related risks. In addition, they are commonly also used as an instrument of redistribution....

Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren: Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen

Börsch-Supan, Axel

In the discussion of a pension reform, an important issue is the difference of the return between a PAYG and a funded system. It is not as straightforward as often suggested, because problems like...

The German Savings Puzzle

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Rodepeter, Ralf, Schnabel, Reinhold, Winter, Joachim

Germany has one of the most generous public pension and health insurance systems of the world, yet private savings are high until old age. Savings remain positive in old age, even for most low income...

Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the international capital flows induced by differences in population aging processes across countries and by pension reforms. In the vast majority...

Savings: The Policy Debate in Europe

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Brugiavini, Agar

Three issues dominate the political debate over savings in Europe: First, can private savings substitute for public pensions in the provision of retirement income, given that the current generosity...

Incentive Effects of Social Security Under an Uncertain Disability Option

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Incentive effects of pension systems are usually estimated under the assumption that the institutional environment provides a single optimal 'pathway' for retirement. However, many countries provide...

Die Vorhersage von Fragenreihenfolgeeffekten durch Antwortlatenzen: Eine Validierungsstudie

Börsch-Supan, Axel

The following paper examines the degree to which response speed in answering attitude-questions can be regarded as a valid indicator for the respondent’s attitude-strength and as a reliable...

Housing Demand in Germany and Japan - Paper in memoriam of Stephen Mayo

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Heiss, Florian, Seko, Miki

National housing markets differ in many aspects, making cross-national studies a fascinating subject. This article sheds light on housing demand in Germany and Japan. The primary task undertaken is...

Would you Like to Reform the Pension System? The Opinions of European Citizens

Boeri, Tito, Börsch-Supan, Axel, Tabellini, Guido

This paper sheds light on the difficulties of pension reforms by analyzing the citizens´opinions on different aspects of the welfare state and its redistributive programs. We focus on the pension...

Kann die Finanz- und Sozialpolitik die Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt lindern?

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other...

What We Know and What We Do NOT Know About the Willingness to Provide Self-Financed Old-Age Insurance

Börsch-Supan, Axel

As the publicly financed pay-as-you-go pension systems in Europe come under increasing pressure, workers and politicians rediscover private savings for retirement in Europe - the provision of...

Risk Attitude, Impatience, and Asset Choice

Eymann, Angelika, Börsch-Supan, Axel, Euwals, Rob

Attitudes with respect to risk bearing, self-control and impatience are potentially important determinants of a households' decision whether or not to hold a certain assets. They are, however, hard...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges

Ben-Akiva, Moshe, McFadden, Daniel, Train, Kenneth, Börsch-Supan, Axel

We discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation. Such approaches incorporate several elements of cognitive process that...

Saving Viewed from a Cross-National Perspective

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Lusardi, Annamaria

Household saving is still little understood, and even the basic facts - for instance: How does saving change over the life cycle? Does saving turn negative in old age? - are controversial. This...

Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Reil-Held, Anette

Public pensions - the primary pillar of old-age income provision - will, in the future, be less generous than they have been in the past, in particular owing to the impact of demographic change. The...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within...

From Traditional DB to Notional DC Systems: Reframing PAYG contributions to "notional savings"

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper provides a critical review of the pension reform strategy which turns defined benefits (DB) public pay-as-you-go systems into notional defined contribution (NDC) systems. We show that...

Faire Abschläge in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung

Börsch-Supan, Axel

The so called actuarial adjustments of public pension benefits to the retirement age are quite controversial in the German retirement insurance system. This article aims to shed light on the...

Pension Reform in Germany:

Berkel, Barbara, Börsch-Supan, Axel

The paper examines the long-term implications of various reform options on retirement entry decisions and the actual retirement age of older workers. It focuses on the changes in pension legislation...

Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Individuals are exposed over the life cycle to considerable biometric, economic, family and political risks. Do we have the right institutions to cover these risks efficiently? We use the term...

Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Essig, Lothar

Demographic change presents major financing problems for the pay-as-you-go pension system. In response to these problems, the 2001 and 2004 German pension reforms reduced the statutory level of...

How an Unfunded Pension System

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Wilke, Christina

This paper describes the German pension reform process 1992-2007 with a stress on a remark-able development: the public pay-as-you-go-financed pension system has almost silently moved from a...

Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations

Ludwig, Alexander, Krüger, Dirk, Börsch-Supan, Axel

Demographic change has differential impacts on the welfare of current and future generations. In a simple closed economy, aging -- a relative scarcity of young workers -- increases wages, increasing...

Zur Sozialversicherungsfreiheit der Entgeltumwandlung

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Wilke, Christina

Um eine Gewichtsverschiebung zwischen den einzelnen Säulen der Alterssicherung zu erreichen, wurden in den vergangenen Jahren auch die Rahmenbedingungen für die betriebliche Altersvorsorge...

Das Sparverhalten deutscher Haushalte: Erste Erfahrungen mit der Riester-Rente

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Schunk, Daniel

This paper investigates the savings behaviour of German households, especially their capability and their reasons to save. We find that about one third of private households do not save at all while...

Aging and Asset Prices

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Sommer, Mathias

This study quantifies the potential effects of aging on asset prices using a sophisticated overlapping generations (OLG) model with international diversification reflecting the global nature of...

Pathways to Disability: Predicting Health Trajectories

Heiss, Florian, Börsch-Supan, Axel, Hurd, Michael, Wise, David

The paper considers transitions in the health and disability status of persons as they age. In particular, we explore the relationship between health and disability at younger ages (say 50) and...

Work Disability, Health, and Incentive Effects

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Disability insurance – the insurance against the loss of the ability to work – is a substantial part of social security expenditures in many countries. The enrolment rates in disability insurance...

European welfare state regimes and their generosity towards the elderly

Börsch-Supan, Axel

The paper examines the generosity of the European welfare state towards the elderly. It shows how various dimensions of the welfare regimes have changed during the recent 10-15 years and how this...

Rational Pension Reform

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper is motivated by the idea to create, wherever possible, rational mechanisms that adapt pension systems automatically to a changed economic and demographic environment, rather than to leave...

Labor market effects of population aging

Börsch-Supan, Axel

This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other...

MIND THE GAP:

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Pension reforms all across Europe have a common theme: to reduce the generosity of the pay-as-you-go public pension pillar threatened by population aging, and to build up new pillars by private...

GLOBAL AGING - Issues, Answers, More Questions

Börsch-Supan, Axel

Global aging will be a major determinant of long run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic and will deeply affect future...

Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions

Axel Börsch-Supan

Global aging will be a major determinant of long run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic and will deeply affect future...

Productivity and the age composition of work teams: Evidence from the assembly line

Axel Börsch-Supan, Matthias Weiss

This paper studies the relation between workers’ age and their productivity in work teams. We explore a unique data set that combines data on errors occurring in the production process of a large...

The Role of Institutions in European Patterns of Work and Retirement

Agar Brugiavini, Axel Börsch-Supan, Enrica Croda

This paper uses the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to investigate the role of pension and social security institutions in shaping the European patterns of work and...

The Role of Institutions in European Patterns of Work and Retirement

Agar Brugiavini, Axel Börsch-Supan, Enrica Croda

This paper uses the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to investigate the role of pension and social security institutions in shaping the European patterns of work and...

Zur mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklung der Erwerbstätigkeit in Deutschland (Medium- and long-term labor force trends in Germany)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Wilke, Christina Benita

"This paper presents projections of the medium- and long-term labor force trends in Germany. Since such projections depend highly on future political decisions and corresponding behavioral changes,...

Zum künftigen Stellenwert der ersten Säule im Gesamtsystem der Alterssicherung

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Bucher-Koenen, Tabea, Reil-Held, Anette, Wilke, Christina

We investigate the development of public pensions in Germany and how its significance will change when the multi-pillar systems matures due to population aging. The message of our analysis is...