Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research (2008)
Evans, George W., Honkapohja, Seppo
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the...
Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules (2008)
Evans, George W., Honkapohja, Seppo
En este trabajo consideramos estabilidad robusta bajo aprendizaje de reglas de tasa de interés alternativas. Definimos �estabilidad robusta� como la estabilidad del equilibrio de expectativas...
Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy (2007)
Evans, George W, Honkapohja, Seppo M.S., Marimon, Ramon
We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-in-advance constraints, and seigniorage- and tax-financed government spending. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is...
Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy (2007)
Evans, George W, Honkapohja, Seppo M.S., Marimon, Ramon
We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-in-advance constraints, and seigniorage- and tax-financed government spending. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is...
Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy (2007)
Evans, George W, Honkapohja, Seppo M.S., Marimon, Ramon
We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-in-advance constraints, and seigniorage- and tax-financed government spending. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is...
William A. Branch, George W. Evans
This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type...
Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies (2005)
Evans, George W, McGough, Bruce
We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of...
Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies (2005)
Evans, George W, McGough, Bruce
We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of...
Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies (2005)
Evans, George W, McGough, Bruce
We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of...
Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning ∗ (2005)
George W. Evans, Noah Williams
We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forwardlooking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both...
George W. Evans, Noah Williams
We consider forward-looking models with agents following stochastic gradient (SG) adaptive learning. We examine how the conditions for stability of SG learning both differ from and are related to...
Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique (2001)
A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics,...
Evans, George W., Honkapohja, Seppo
Standard linear macroeconomic models generate business cycles around a unique equilibrium through random productivity or preference shocks. Dynamic nonlinear models with multiple equilibria have the...
Evans, George W., Reichlin, L.
The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast based method of decomposing a variable, such as output, into trend and cycle when the variable is integrated of order one (I(1). This paper...
Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?
Chakraborty, Avik, Evans, George W.
Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange-rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are...
Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance
James Bullard, George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We examine the possibility of a...
George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in...
Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning
George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, Noah Williams
We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both...
Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules
George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
We consider “robust stability” of a rational expectations equilibrium, which we define as stability under discounted (constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We...
Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap
This paper reports on the findings of Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2007) concerning the global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest rate rule is subject to...
Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation
Evans, George W., Guse, Eran, Honkapohja, Seppo
We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended...
CALCULATION, ADAPTATION AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
Evans, George W., Ramey, Garey
We propose an active cognition approach to bounded rationality, inwhich agents use a calculation algorithm to improve on the forecastsprovided by a purely adaptive learning rule such as...
CONVERGENCE IN MONETARY INFLATION MODELS WITH HETEROGENEOUS LEARNING RULES
Evans, George W., Honkapohja, Seppo, Marimon, Ramon
Inflation and the monetary financing of deficits are analyzed in a model in which the deficit is constrained to be less than a given fraction of a measure of aggregate market activity. Depending on...
Evans, George W., Guesnerie, Roger
The title speaks for itself: This special issue focuses attention on dynamical models in which expectations matter and in which expectational coordination is not taken for granted. This is a subject...
COORDINATION ON SADDLE-PATH SOLUTIONS: THE EDUCTIVE VIEWPOINT LINEAR UNIVARIATE MODELS
Evans, George W., Guesnerie, Roger
We investigate local strong rationality (LSR) in a one-step-forward-looking univariate model with memory one. Eductive arguments are used to determine when common knowledge (CK) that the solution is...
Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research
George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the...
Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules
George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
We consider robust stability under learning of alternative interest-rate rules. By “robust stability” we mean stability of the rational expectations equilibrium, under discounted (constant gain)...
Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy
Evans, George W., Honkapohja, Seppo
We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja...
The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast based method of decomposing a variable, such as output, into trend and cycle when the variable is integrated of order one (I(1). This paper...
George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja
Standard linear macroeconomic models generate business cycles around a unique equilibrium through random productivity or preference shocks. Dynamic nonlinear models with multiple equilibria have the...
Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy
George W. Evans, Ramon Marimon
We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-in-advance constraints, and seigniorage- and tax-financed government spending. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is...
Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies
George W. Evans, Bruce McGough
We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of...
Expectations, deflation traps and macroeconomic policy
Evans , George W, Honkapohja, Seppo
We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja,...