John C. Williams

What's Happened to the Phillips Curve? (2007)

Este documento analiza la robustez de las políticas de control óptimo derivadas bajo el supuesto de expectativas racionales en modelos con formación alternativa de expectativas y con tasas...

Flint Brayton, John M. Roberts, John C. Williams

The simultaneous occurrence in the second half of the 1990s of low and falling price inflation and low unemployment appears to be at odds with the properties of a standard Phillips curve. We find...

and (2007)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty (2007)

A large empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30 % to over 100%, supporting the notion that there is too little private investment in research. This...

Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams, Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams

The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the

The National Shipbuilding Research Program. Proceedings of the REAPS Technical Symposium. Paper No. 25: Special Interest Group Reports (2006)

Martin, Douglas J., Williams, John C., Putnam, George P.

This session centered on the current capabilities of several commercially available graphics systems in parts nesting and computer aided shipyard drafting. Three representatives of graphics system...

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge (2006)

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge (2006)

Un principio central del esquema de metas de inflación es la importancia que se da a establecer y mantener bien ancladas las expectativas inflacionarias. En este artículo revisamos el papel que...

Monetary Policy under Uncertainty (2005)

are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of...

Andrew T. Levin, Alexei Onatski, John C. Williams, Noah Williams

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply...

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates (2003)

Orphanides, Athanasios., Williams, John C. (John Carroll)

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity - 2002, 2

Journal of Economic Growth, 5: 65--85 (March 2000) c (2000)

Too Much Of, Charles I. Jones, John C. Williams

this article, we take a different approach and use a calibrated endogenous growth model to examine the issue of over- and underinvestment in R&D

the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, jointly presented their paper on “The Performance of ForecastBased Monetary Policy Rules under Model uncertainty”. Their quantitative analysis compared forecast-based monetary policy rules with outcome (1999)

Athanasios Orphanides, John C. Williams, Federal Reserve, Bank San Francisco

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Goethe University Frankfurt and European Central Bank (1999)

Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty (1999)

∗ A portion of this research was conducted while Wieland served as a consultant in the Directorate General Research of the European Central Bank. The views expressed in this paper are solely the...

Andrew Levin, Volker Wiel, John C. Williams, Larry Christiano, David Lindsey, ...

Conference on Monetary Policy Rules. The views expressed here are solely the responsibility of the authors, and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the...

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy (1999)

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era (1999)

What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, efficient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale openeconomy macroeconometric model. Simple...

David Reifschneider, John C. Williams, Athanasios Orphanides, Michael Prell, David Small, David Stockton, ...

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on...

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy (1999)

Structural and mutagenesis studies of leishmania triosephosphate isomerase: a point mutation can convert a mesophilic enzyme into a superstable enzyme without losing catalytic power (1999)

What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, e cient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale openeconomy macroeconometric model. Simple...

Williams, John C., Zeelen, Johan P., Neubauer, Gitte, Vriend, Gert, Backmann, Jan, Michels, Paul A.M., ...

The dimeric enzyme triosephosphate isomerase (TIM) has a very tight and rigid dimer interface. At this interface a critical hydrogen bond is formed between the main chain oxygen atom of the catalytic...

Epoxy Fixturing. (1998)

Rehberger,Louis W., Williams,John C., Demme,John P.

The patent describes a system, means, and method for concurrently producing a plurality of different and irregular subcombinations by molding the subcombinations of epoxy resin and numerical control...

The National Shipbuilding Research Program, Proceedings of the REAPS Technical Symposium Paper No. 2: The New REAPS Program for U.S. Shipbuilders (1998)

Experimental evaluation of the fatigue mechanisms and behavior of carbon-carbon composites : a dissertation / (1998)

The primary purpose of this discussion is to introduce a new version of the REAPS Program. In 1971 a Maritime Administration (MarAd) Advisory Group recognized a void in the area of computer aided...

A Business, Cycle Analysis, Simon Gilchrist, John C. Williams

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Clarkson University, 1998.

and (1998)

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology that incorporates embodied technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low...

Measuring the Social Return to R&D (1998)

The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board (1997)

Is there too much or too little private research and development (R&D)? A large empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30% to over 100%, supporting...

Flint Brayton, Andrew Levin, Ralph Tryon, John C. Williams

1996. The authors gratefully acknowledge the comments of Robert King and Ben McCallum and participants at the conference. The macroeconomic models at the Federal Reserve Board described in this paper...

and (1997)

The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board (1997)

A large empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30 % to over 100%, supporting the notion that there is too little private investment in research. This...

Flint Brayton, Andrew Levin, Ralph Tryon, John C. Williams

� This paper was prepared for the Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, November 22-23, 1996. The authors gratefully acknowledge the comments of Robert King and Ben McCallum and...

and (1997)

Observations of damage evolution in carbon-carbon composites during low-cycle, 3-point-bending fatigue : a thesis / (1994)

Is there too much or too little private research and development (R&D)? A large empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30 % to over 100%, supporting...

The relationship between fundamental interpersonal relations orientations and leader behavior of selected Mississippi elementary principals. (1979)

Thesis (M.S.)--Clarkson University, 1994.

The utilization of film and videotape for on location production by public television stations and production centers--[microform] /--by John C. Williams. (1977)

Thesis (Ed. D.)--Mississippi State University. Department of Educational Administration, Adult Education and Community College Education.

A motel-conference center, Lawrence, Kansas /--[by Richard E. Jones, Roger J. Little, Arthur S. Ramirez, John C. Williams, Charles R. Howard, William L. Woody, Michael E. Whitacre, Michael T. Cornwell, Thomas M. Tredway]. (1972)

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Stout, 1977.

Jones, Richard E., Little, Roger J., Ramirez, Arthur S., Williams, John C., Howard, Charles R., Woody, William L., ...

[Fifth year team] Project (B. Arch.)--University of Kansas, Architecture and Urban Design, 1972.

A history of education in Lyons, New York, 1804-1956 /--by John C. Williams. (1956)

The Viscosity and Fluidity of Aqueous Potassium Ferrocyanide Solutions (1935)

Typescript.

Hood, G. Raymond, Williams, John C.

On menstruation. (1852)

Discussion of 'A Snapshot of Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence'

Thesis (M.D.)--Medical College of the State of South Carolina, 1852.

John C Williams

monetary policy, inflation targeting

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy

Orphanides, Athanasios, Williams, John C

Central bankers frequently emphasize the critical importance of anchoring private inflation expectations for successful monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization. In most monetary policy...

Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

Expectations, learning and monetary policy

We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model...

The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations

Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models

Andrew T. Levin, Alexei Onatski, John C. Williams, Noah Williams

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply...

Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model...

John C Williams, Athanasios Orphanides

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the...

The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations

Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Simple rules for monetary policy

Central bankers frequently emphasize the critical importance of anchoring private inflation expectations for successful monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization. In most monetary policy...

Transition dynamics in vintage capital models: explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan

How effective are "simple" monetary policy rules at stabilizing the economy? This paper explores the characteristics and performance of monetary policy rules designed to minimize fluctuations in...

Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan's rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital...

Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy

This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. I model...

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

Central banks pay close attention to inflation expectations. In standard models, however, inflation expectations are tied down by the assumption of rational expectations and should be of little...

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument

This paper introduces Heckscher-Ohlin trade features into a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and studies the international transmission of productivity shocks through trade...

McGough, Bruce, Rudebusch, Glenn D., Williams, John C.

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-up of Germany and Japan

This paper develops a general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low short-run capital-labor substitutability induces the...

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan’s rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital...

Andrew T. Levin, Alexei Onatski, John C. Williams, Noah Williams

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply...

Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models

John C. Williams, Andrew T. Levin

model uncertainty, optimal control, robust control

Src regulated by C-terminal phosphorylation is monomeric

Weijland, Albert, Williams, John C., Neubauer, Gitte, Courtneidge, Sara A., Wierenga, Rik K., Superti-Furga, Giulio

The activity of the c-Src protein tyrosine kinase is regulated by phosphorylation of a tyrosine residue (Tyr-527) in the C-terminal tail of the molecule. Phosphorylation of Tyr-527 promotes...

In Vitro Susceptibility of Selected Bacteria to Three Diphosphonia Heterocyclic Compounds

Pearson, Frederick C., Lemeshka, Theodore, Ferrara, Frank, Williams, John C.

The antibacterial activity of 1,1,4,4-tetraphenyl-1,4-diphosphonia-2,5-diphenylcyclohexadi-2,5-ene dichloride and two of its derivatives were screened for activity using the disk method. All...

Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations

Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge

This Economic Letter examines whether the recent stability of inflation and inflation expectations represents a fundamental shift in the observed behavior of inflation and explores some possible...

Orphanides, Athanasios, Williams, John C

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation...

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of...

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary...

Glenn D. Rudebusch, John C. Williams

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process...

Labor markets and the macroeconomy: conference summary

Richard Dennis, John C. Williams

This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Labor Markets and the Macroeconomy" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on March 3 and 4, 2006.

Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation...

Macroeconomic factors in the term structure of interest rates when agents learn

The central tenet of inflation targeting is the anchoring of inflation expectations. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the...

Thomas Laubach, Robert J. Tetlow, John C. Williams

Finance models of the term structure of interest rates have for a long time relied on unobserved factors as explanatory variables. In a seminal paper, Ang and Piazzesi (2003) have examined the...

Src regulated by C-terminal phosphorylation is monomeric

Weijland, Albert, Williams, John C., Neubauer, Gitte, Courtneidge, Sara A., Wierenga, Rik K., Superti-Furga, Giulio

The activity of the c-Src protein tyrosine kinase is regulated by phosphorylation of a tyrosine residue (Tyr-527) in the C-terminal tail of the molecule. Phosphorylation of Tyr-527 promotes...

In Vitro Susceptibility of Selected Bacteria to Three Diphosphonia Heterocyclic Compounds

Pearson, Frederick C., Lemeshka, Theodore, Ferrara, Frank, Williams, John C.

The antibacterial activity of 1,1,4,4-tetraphenyl-1,4-diphosphonia-2,5-diphenylcyclohexadi-2,5-ene dichloride and two of its derivatives were screened for activity using the disk method. All...

Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge

The natural rate of interest

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation...

Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

Interest rates ; Monetary policy

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation...

Monetary policy, transparency, and credibility: conference summary

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the...

Richard Dennis, John C. Williams

This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Monetary Policy, Transparency, and Credibility" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on March 23 and 24, 2007.

Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era

David Reifschneider, John C. Williams

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the zero bound on...

Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters....

The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty.

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the...

John C. Williams, Andrew T. Levin, Volker Wieland

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of...

The dynein light chain 8 binding motif of rabies virus phosphoprotein promotes efficient viral transcription

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the...

Tan, Gene S., Preuss, Mirjam A. R., Williams, John C., Schnell, Matthias J.

Recent studies indicate that the interaction between rabies virus (RV) phosphoprotein and the dynein light chain 8 (LC8) is essential for RV pathogenesis. Through its association with the dynein...

Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

Structural and thermodynamic characterization of a cytoplasmic dynein light chain–intermediate chain complex

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters....

Williams, John C., Roulhac, Petra L., Roy, Anindya G., Vallee, Richard B., Fitzgerald, Michael C., Hendrickson, Wayne A.

Cytoplasmic dynein is a microtubule-based motor protein complex that plays important roles in a wide range of fundamental cellular processes, including vesicular transport, mitosis, and cell...

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

macroeconomics, Robust Monetary Policy Rules, Natural Rates

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of...

John C. Williams, Athanasios Orphanides

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Implications of the Zero Bound on Interest Rates for the Design of Monetary Policy Rules

David Reifschneider, John C. Williams

In the presence of nominal rigidities, monetary policy can potentially improve welfare by reducing the magnitude of short-run fluctuations in inflation and resource utilization. According to a...

The Performance of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty

Volker Wieland, Andrew Levin, John C. Williams

Recently, increasing attention is being devoted to interest rate rules that respond directly to economic forecasts rather than relying on current and past observations. Empirical studies suggest this...

Inflation Scares and Monetary Policy

John C. Williams, Athanasios Orphanides

Learning, expectations, inflation targeting, optimal control, credibility

Parameter Uncertainty and the Central Bank's Objective Function

John C. Williams, Andrew T. Levin

optimal control, monetary policy, DGE

Too much of a good thing? The economics of investment in R&D

John C. Williams, Charles I. Jones

Research and development ; Productivity

The limits to "growing an economy."

Measuring the social return to R&D

Economic development ; Productivity

Putty-clay and investment: a business cycle analysis

A large, empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30 percent to over 100 percent, supporting the notion that there is too little private investment in...

Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology that incorporates embodied technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low...

Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of...

David Reifschneider, John C. Williams

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on...

Simple rules for monetary policy

What's happened to the Phillips curve?

What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, efficient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale open-economy macroeconometric model. Simple...

Flint Brayton, John M. Roberts, John C. Williams

The simultaneous occurrence in the second half of the 1990s of low and falling price inflation and low unemployment appears to be at odds with the properties of a standard Phillips curve. We find...

The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty

Measuring the natural rate of interest

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of...

Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest -- the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies...

Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates

This paper investigates the role of imperfect knowledge regarding the structure of the economy on the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary...

The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks

We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain....

Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth

This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky...

Investment, capacity, and uncertainty: a putty-clay approach

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. In...

Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

In this paper, we embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay...

Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary...

Robust monetary policy with competing reference models

We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain....

Andrew T. Levin, John C. Williams

The literature on robust monetary policy rules has largely focused on the case in which the policymaker has a single reference model while the true economy lies within a specified neighborhood of the...

Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy

The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks

Central banks pay close attention to inflation expectations. In standard models, however, inflation expectations are tied down by the assumption of rational expectations and should be of little...

Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth

This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky...

Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. We analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth...

Transition dynamics in vintage capital models: explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan

This paper considers the monetary policymaker’s joint problem of model estimation and the design of a policy rule in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the...

Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan’s rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital...

Bruce McGough, Glenn D. Rudebusch, John C. Williams

Using a short-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument can be problematic near its zero bound constraint. An alternative strategy is to use a long-term interest rate as the policy...

Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy

Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

Central banks pay close attention to inflation expectations. In standard models, however, inflation expectations are tied down by the assumption of rational expectations and should be of little...

Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation...

Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections

In theory, monetary policies that target the price level, as opposed to the inflation rate, should be highly effective at stabilizing the economy and avoiding deflation in the presence of the zero...

Glenn D. Rudebusch, John C. Williams

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process...

Robust monetary policy with competing reference models

Levin, Andrew T., Williams, John C.

The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board

Brayton, Flint, Levin, Andrew, Lyon, Ralph, Williams, John C.

A black swan in the money market

John B. Taylor, John C. Williams

At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer rates (Libor). Because...

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates

macroeconomics, Robust Monetary Policy Rules, Natural Rates

Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth

macroeconomics, Robust Monetary Policy Rules, Natural Rates

Edge, Rochelle M., Laubach, Thomas, Williams, John C.

Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change

Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve

This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. We model...

Glenn D. Rudebusch, John C. Williams

We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead. This is particularly puzzling because, for at least the past two decades,...

The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning and expectations.

Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Lesotho: Economic Implications of Migrant Labour

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about the true values...

JOHN C. WILLIAMS

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty

Andrew Levin, John C. Williams

In this paper, we consider whether monetary policymakers should adjust short-term nominal interest rates in response to inflation and output forecasts rather than to recent outcomes of these...

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations

Orphanides, Athanasios, Williams, John C

We develop an estimated model of the US economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behaviour of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Discussion of 'A Snapshot of Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence'

John C Williams, Christopher Kent, Simon Guttmann

monetary policy; inflation targeting

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D.

Jones, Charles I, Williams, John C

Research and development is a key determinant of long-run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an endogenous...

The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations

Implementing price stability bands, boundaries and inflation targeting

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the...

Robert Tetlow, John C. Williams

Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy - United States ; Macroeconomics

Transition dynamics in vintage capital models: explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan's rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital...

Measuring The Social Return To R&D

We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model...

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive in a growth...

Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams

The natural rate of interest-the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural rate and stable inflation-plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. Estimation...

Adherence of Helicobacter pylori to Abiotic Surfaces Is Influenced by Serum▿ †

Williams, John C., McInnis, Karla A., Testerman, Traci L.

Helicobacter pylori bacteria cultured in a chemically defined medium without serum readily adhere to a variety of abiotic surfaces. Growth produces microcolonies that spread to cover the entire...

THE BURDON SLOW POISONING CASE

Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy

Learning, expectations formation and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty...

WELFARE-MAXIMIZING MONETARY POLICY UNDER PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations. We assume that agents have...

LEARNING, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE PITFALLS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL MONETARY POLICY

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters....

Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived un- der the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations. We assume that agents...

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of...

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology that incorporates embodied technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low...

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy

Research and development (R&D) is a key determinant of long run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an...

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary...

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

We embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. In the...

A Black Swan in the Money Market

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan's rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital...

John B. Taylor, John C. Williams

At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer rates (Libor). Because...

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D

Measuring the Social Return to R&D

February 26, 1996, Version 5.00 Empirical research in the micro productivity literature consistently supports the notion that there is too little R&D. However, the methodology of this literature,...

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D"

January 24, 1997, Version 2.00 Is there too much or too little private research and development (R&D)? A large empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30% to...

Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy

July 6, 1999 Research and development (R&D) is a key determinant of long run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We...

Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty...

Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty...

Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations. We assume that agents have...

A Black Swan in the Money Market

The optimal control approach to monetary policy has garnered increased attention in recent years. Optimal control policies, however, are designed for the specific features of a particular model and...

John B. Taylor, John C. Williams

The recent financial crisis saw a dramatic and persistent jump in interest rate spreads between overnight federal funds and longer - term interbank loans. The Fed took several actions to reduce these...

The risk of deflation

How big is the output gap?

This Letter examines the risk of deflation in the United States by reviewing the evidence from past episodes of deflation and inflation.

Justin Weidner, John C. Williams

This Economic Letter examines measurement of potential output, focusing on how big the output gap—and the resulting downward pressure on inflation—is today.

Interaction with LC8 Is Required for Pak1 Nuclear Import and Is Indispensable for Zebrafish Development

Lightcap, Christine M., Kari, Gabor, Arias-Romero, Luis E., Chernoff, Jonathan, Rodeck, Ulrich, Williams, John C.

Pak1 (p21 activated kinase 1) is a serine/threonine kinase implicated in regulation of cell motility and survival and in malignant transformation of mammary epithelial cells. In addition, the dynein...

Biochemical and Structural Characterization of the Pak1-LC8 Interaction*S⃞

Lightcap, Christine M., Sun, Shangjin, Lear, James D., Rodeck, Ulrich, Polenova, Tatyana, Williams, John C.

Pak1 (p21-activated kinase-1) and the dynein light chain, LC8, are overexpressed in breast cancer, and their direct interaction has been proposed to regulate tumor cell survival. These effects have...

Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound