Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda More Poverty Friendly? (2007)
Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman, Ivanic, Maros, Winters, Alan
The breakdown of the WTO negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda has inspired critics to highlight the lack of effort on the part of rich countries to reform their agricultural policies. In...
The Role of Global Land Use in Determining Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Costs (2006)
Hertel, Thomas, Lee, Huey-Lin, Rose, Steven, Sohngen, Brent
This paper develops a CGE model with unique regional land types and detailed non-CO2 GHG emissions which it uses to analyze the potential for reductions in land-based greenhouse gas emissions as well...
Ludena, Carlos, Hertel, Thomas, Preckel, Paul, Foster, Kenneth, Nin Pratt, Alejandro
There is considerable interest in projections of future productivity growth in agriculture. Whether one is interested in the outlook for global commodity markets, future patterns of international...
Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries (2006)
Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman, Ivanic, Maros, Winters, Alan
Rich countries' agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to...
Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country Demand System (2006)
Cranfield, John, Preckel, Paul, Hertel, Thomas
This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand...
Lee, Huey-Lin, Hertel, Thomas, Sohngen, Brent, Ramankutty, Navin
This paper describes the GTAP Land Use Data Base designed to support integrated assessments of the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. It disaggregates land use by agro-ecological zone (AEZ). To...
Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility (2005)
Valenzuela, Ernesto, Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman, Reimer, Jeff
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. However, concerns are sometimes raised about the quality of their output since key parameters...
Global models of agricultural trade have a long and distinguished history. The introduction of the GTAP data base and modeling project represented a significant advance forward as it put modelers and...
A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization (2004)
An applied general equilibrium model with oligopoly and scale economies, based on detailed plant-level data, is used to contrast the impacts of the Morocco-EU free trade area (FTA) to multilateral...
Hertel, Thomas, Ivanic, Maros, Preckel, Paul, Cranfield, John
Poverty reduction is an increasingly important consideration in the deliberations over multilateral trade liberalization. However, the analytical procedures used to assess the impacts of multilateral...
How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements? (2003)
Hertel, Thomas, Hummels, David, Ivanic, Maros, Keeney, Roman
With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such...
Labor Market Distortions, Rural-Urban Inequality and the Opening of China's Economy (2003)
Zhai, Fan, Hertel, Thomas, Wang, Zhi
This paper evaluates the impact of some key labor market reforms on rural-urban inequality and income distribution, using a household-disaggregated, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium...
Trade Liberalization and the Structure of Poverty in Developing Countries (2003)
Hertel, Thomas, Ivanic, Maros, Preckel, Paul, Cranfield, John
"Globalization increases poverty" is a common assertion made by critics of globalization. The proliferation of low-wage jobs and higher food prices are some of the arguments brought forward in...
Itakura, Ken, Hertel, Thomas, Reimer, Jeff
Applied general equilibrium (AGE) analysis is often found to under-predict the increases in trade and economic growth that result from trade liberalization. One potential reason is that conventional...
Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems (2003)
Yu, Wusheng, Hertel, Thomas, Preckel, Paul, Eales, James
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the...
International Cross Section Estimates of Demand for Use in the GTAP Model (2003)
The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system...
OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries (2003)
Dimaranan, Betina, Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman
This paper aims to shed light on the potential interests of developing countries in reforms to domestic support for agriculture in the OECD economies. In order to accomplish this goal, we begin by...
Estimating the Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization (2002)
As a new round of World Trade Organization negotiations is being launched with greater emphasis on developing country participation, a body of literature is emerging which quantifies how...
Dynamic Effects of the "New Age" Free Trade Agreement between Japan and Singapore (2001)
Hertel, Thomas, Walmsley, Terrie, Itakura, Ken
As manufacturing tariffs have fallen worldwide, the focus of free trade agreements has shifted towards other issues, including: rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in...
Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model (2001)
Liu, Jing, Arndt, Channing, Hertel, Thomas
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used for quantitative analysis of global economic issues. However, CGE models are frequently criticized for resting on weak empirical...
China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything (2000)
Walmsley, Terrie, Hertel, Thomas
Since China's application in 1987 to resume its status in the Generalized Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) there has been a great deal of debate over the timing of...
Decomposing Welfare Changes in the GTAP Model (2000)
This paper develops a complete decomposition of the change in global welfare in the GTAP model. In particular, this money metric change is broken down into component parts, each of which relates to a...
A Disequilibrium Model of International Capital Mobility (2000)
Ianchovichina, Elena, McDougall, Robert, Hertel, Thomas
The paper proposes a new disequilibrium approach to modeling international capital mobility for a dynamic multi- region general equilibrium model. Key to this approach are errors in investors'...
China in 2005 Revisited: The Implications of International Capital Mobility (2000)
Ianchovichina, Elena, McDougall, Robert, Hertel, Thomas
This paper revisits the analysis of the implications of China's economic growth on her trading partners presented in Arndt et al. (1997) using a dynamic, applied general equilibrium model that...
Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations? (1999)
Paper prepared for the World Bank's Conference on Developing Countries and the Millennium Round, Council Room, WTO Secretariat, Centre William Rappard, Geneva, 19-20 September. The importance of...
Trade Liberalization as a Vehicle for Adapting to Global Warming (1999)
Hertel, Thomas, Randhir, Timothy
This study assesses the interaction between climate change and agricultural trade policies. We distinguish between two dimensions of agricultural trade policy: market insulation and subsidy levels....
The East Asian Economic Crisis: It's not All Bad News (1999)
Ianchovichina, Elena, Hertel, Thomas, McDougall, Robert
Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Second Quarter The East Asian crisis is not all bad news for the United States and Canada (North America). Net debtors in North America - be...
Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP (1998)
Liu, Jing, Van Leeuwen, Nico, Vo, Tri Thanh, Tyers, Rod, Hertel, Thomas
This paper outlines an approach to disaggregating labor payments in the GTAP, global economic data base. The split between low- and high-skilled labor is based on occupational data. High-skilled...
Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets (1998)
Coyle, William, Gehlhar, Mark, Hertel, Thomas, Wang, Zhi, Yu, Wusheng
This study assesses the interaction between climate change and agricultural trade policies. We distinguish between two dimensions of agricultural trade policy: market insulation and subsidy levels....
Beiträge zur Chemie der Halogennitrate und Supersäuren / (1997)
Dortmund, Universiẗat, Diss., 1997.
Introducing Monopolistic Competition into the GTAP Model (1996)
Hertel, Thomas, Swaminathan, Padma
This technical paper documents one approach to incorporating monopolistic competition into the GTAP model. In this framework, consumer preferences are heterogeneous, leading to an apparent "love of...
Berlin, Humboldt-Universiẗat, Diss., 1993.
Ergebnisse nach Thrombektomie von Becken-Beinvenenthrombosen der Jahre 1976 - 1980. (1990)
Berlin, Akad. für Ärztl. Fortbildung d. DDR, Diss. A, 1990 (Nicht f.d. Austausch).
Estimation of International Demand Behaviour for Use with Input-Output Based Data
The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system...
International Cross Section Estimates of Demand for Use in the GTAP Model
The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system...
Global models of agricultural trade have a long and distinguished history. The introduction of the GTAP Data Base and modeling project represented a significant advance forward as it put modelers and...
Towards An Integrated Land Use Database for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Lee, Huey-Lin, Thomas Hertel, Brent Sohngen, Navin Ramankutty
This paper describes the GTAP Land Use Data Base designed to support integrated assessments of the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. It disaggregates land use by agro-ecological zone (AEZ). To...
Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility
Valenzuela, Ernesto, Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman, Reimer, Jeff
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. However, concerns are sometimes raised about the quality of their output since key parameters...
Implicit Additive Preferences: A Further Generalization of the CES
Paul Preckel, Thomas Hertel, John Cranfield
The CES is generalized by extension of the work of Hanoch (1975) resulting in implicit, direct and indirect relationships between utility and consumption. Expressions for substitution and income...
Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates
Hertel, Thomas, Tyner, Wally, Birur, Dileep
The recent rise in world oil prices, coupled with heightened interest in the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, has led to a sharp increase in domestic biofuels production around the world....
Recent work has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. This work has at the same time sparked considerable...
Labor market distortions, rural-urban inequality, and the opening of China's economy
The authors evaluate the impact of two key factor market distortions in China on rural-urban inequality and income distribution. They find that creation of a fully functioning land market has a...
The authors assess the implications of multilateral trade reforms for poverty in China. They do so by combining results from a global modeling exercise with a national CGE model that features...
A Note on the CES Functional Form and Its Use in the GTAP Model
The purpose of this note is to provide an exhaustive reference for those interested in learning more about the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) function and its use in the representation of...
Introducing Forest Access Cost Functions into a General Equilibrium Model
Gouel, Christophe, Hertel, Thomas
The purpose of this Research Memorandum is to propose an approach to incorporating forest access cost functions into global general equilibrium models such as GTAP. Towards this end, we develop a...
Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems
Yu, Wusheng, Hertel, Thomas, Preckel, Paul, Eales, James
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the...
International Cross Section Estimates of Demand for Use in the GTAP Model
The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system...
Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model
Liu, Jing, Channing Arndt, Thomas Hertel
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used for quantitative analysis of global economic issues. However, CGE models are frequently criticized for resting on weak empirical...
How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?
Hertel, Thomas, David Hummels, Maros Ivanic, Roman Keeney
With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such...
Labor Market Distortions, Rural-Urban Inequality and the Opening of China’s Economy
Zhai, Fan, Hertel, Thomas, Wang, Zhi
This paper evaluates the impact of some key labor market reforms on rural-urban inequality and income distribution, using a household-disaggregated, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium...
Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries
Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman, Ivanic, Maros, Winters, Alan
Rich countries’ agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO’s troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear...
Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country Demand System
Cranfield, John, Preckel, Paul, Hertel, Thomas
This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand...
Ludena, Carlos, Hertel, Thomas, Preckel, Paul, Foster, Kenneth, Nin Pratt, Alejandro
There is considerable interest in projections of future productivity growth in agriculture. Whether one is interested in the outlook for global commodity markets, future patterns of international...
The Role of Global Land Use in Determining Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Costs
Hertel, Thomas, Lee, Huey-Lin, Rose, Steven, Sohngen, Brent
This paper develops a CGE model with unique regional land types and detailed non-CO2 GHG emissions which it uses to analyze the potential for reductions in land-based greenhouse gas emissions as well...
Aziz Elbehri, Thomas Hertel, Will Martin
The agreement to abolish the quotas on textiles and clothing introduced under the Multi-fiber Arrangement (MFA) will create a new and much more competitive world market for India's exports of...
Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions
Ernesto Valenzuela, Kym Anderson, Thomas Hertel
Trade policy reform, WTO, Agricultural trade, Computable general equilibrium, C68, F17, Q17,
Land Use in Computable General Equilibrium Models: An Overview
Hertel, Thomas, Rose, Steven, Tol, Richard
*Chapter 1 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol
Why Isn’t the Doha Development Agenda More Poverty Friendly?
Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman, Ivanic, Maros, Winters, Alan
The breakdown of the WTO negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda has inspired critics to highlight the lack of effort on the part of rich countries to reform their agricultural policies. In...
How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?
Hertel, Thomas, Hummels, David, Ivanic, Maros, Keeney, Roman
Global Agricultural Land Use Data for Climate Change Analysis
Monfreda, Chad, Ramankutty, Navin, Hertel, Thomas
*Chapter 2 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol
An Integrated Global Land Use Data Base for CGE Analysis of Climate Policy Options
Lee, Huey-Lin, Hertel, Thomas, Rose, Steven, Avetisyan, Misak
*Chapter 4 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol
Modeling Land-use Related Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks and their Mitigation Potential
Hertel, Thomas, Lee, Huey-Lin, Rose, Steven, Sohngen, Brent
*Chapter 6 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol
Land Use Modeling in Recursively-Dynamic GTAP Framework
Golub, Alla, Hertel, Thomas, Sohngen, Brent
*Chapter 10 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. The goal of this work is to...
The Role of Forestry in Carbon Sequestration in General Equilibrium Models
Sohngen, Brent, Golub, Alla, Hertel, Thomas
*Chapter 11 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol
Procompetitive Effects of Foreign Competition on Domestic Markups.
Ianchovichina, Elena, Binkley, James, Hertel, Thomas
A short-run model for estimating the procompetitive effects of foreign competition on markups in an oligopolistic, domestic industry is developed and estimated using data on the Australian automobile...
Itakura, Ken, Hertel, Thomas, Jeff Reimer
Applied general equilibrium (AGE) analysis is often found to under-predict the increases in trade and economic growth that result from trade liberalization. One potential reason is that conventional...
Trade Liberalization and the Structure of Poverty in Developing Countries
Hertel, Thomas, Maros Ivanic, Paul Preckel, John Cranfield
“Globalization increases poverty” is a common assertion made by critics of globalization. The proliferation of low-wage jobs and higher food prices are some of the arguments brought forward in...
A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization
An applied general equilibrium model with oligopoly and scale economies, based on detailed plant-level data, is used to contrast the impacts of the Morocco-EU free trade area (FTA) to multilateral...
Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform
Quantifying how international trade affects poverty in developing countries is currently an area of intense research activity. This paper surveys the developments taking place, identifies four major...
Birur, Dileep, Hertel, Thomas, Tyner, Wally
This paper introduces biofuels sectors as energy inputs into the GTAP data base and to the production and consumption structures of the GTAP-Energy model developed by Burniaux and Truong (2002), and...
How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?
Thomas Hertel, David Hummels, Maros Ivanic, Roman Keeney
Computable General Equilibrium models, widely used for the analysis of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are often criticized for having poor econometric foundations. This paper improves the linkage...
Projecting Supply and Demand for Land in the Long Run
Golub, Alla, Hertel, Thomas, Sohngen, Brent
The goal of this work is to investigate land-use change at the global scale over the long run – particularly in the context of analyzing the fundamental drivers behind land-use related GHG...
Disaggregate Productivity Growth in Livestock Production: A Directional Malmquist Index Approach
Ludena, Carlos, Hertel, Thomas, Preckel, Paul, Foster, Ken, Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
Limited data on the allocation of inputs to different activities has limited agricultural economists' attempts to measure sub-sector productivity growth in agriculture. However, recent developments...
Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?
Valenzuela, Ernesto, Hertel, Thomas
Trade policy reform prospects have generated debate about the impacts on poverty. Some critics assert that price changes induced by trade reform are minimal and may not be distinguishable from price...
OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries
Dimaranan, Betina, Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman
An AGE model with detailed farm supply and substitution relationships is used to analyze impacts of OECD domestic support reform on developing economy welfare. Stylized simulations indicate reforms...
THE EAST ASIAN CRISIS: A DYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
Ianchovichina, Elena, McDougall, Robert, Hertel, Thomas
The paper proposes a new disequilibrium approach to modeling international capital mobility. Key to this approach are errors in investors' assessments of potential returns to capital -- such as those...
Introducing Liquid Biofuels into the GTAP Data Base
Taheripour, Farzad, Dileep Birur, Thomas Hertel, Wally Tyner
Production of liquid biofuels has rapidly increased around the world in recent years. Biofuel production, by its nature, can affect the economy and environment of many countries in different ways....
OECD Domestic Support and Developing Countries
Dimaranan, Betina, Hertel, Thomas, Keeney, Roman
domestic support, OECD, developing countries, agricultural trade, WTO
Projecting Supply and Demand for Land in the Long Run
Golub, Alla, Hertel, Thomas, Sohngen, Brent
The goal of this work is to investigate land-use change at the global scale over the long run – particularly in the context of analyzing the fundamental drivers behind land-use related GHG...
Calibration of a Land Cover Supply Function Using Transition Probabilities
Ahmed, Syud Amer, Thomas Hertel, Ruben Lubowski
An important question that arises frequently in the economic analysis of environmental and energy policies is, how does the supply of land across various uses change in response to policies? The GTAP...
Why Previous Estimates of the Cost of Climate Mitigation are Likely Too Low
Beckman, Jayson, Hertel, Thomas
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been heavily utilized in analyses of the costs of Greenhouse Gas mitigation policies. This is in large part due to their ability to simulate potential...
Biofuel Growth: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts from Changes in Forest Carbon Stocks
Golub, Alla, Hertel, Thomas, Rose, Steven, Sohngen, Brent
There is significant policy interest in liquid biofuels with appealing prospects for energy security, farm security, poverty alleviation, and climate change. Large-scale commercial biofuel production...
The Relative Role of Land in Climate Policy
Golub, Alla, Hertel, Thomas, Rose, Steven, Sohngen, Brent, Avetisyan, Misak
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/26/09.
Hertel, Thomas, Golub, Alla, Jones, Andrew, O'Hare, Michael, Plevin, Richard, Kammen, Daniel
With the recent adoption by the California Air Resources Board of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and USEPA’s Energy Independence and Security Act, greenhouse gas releases from indirect...
Narayanan, Badri, Hertel, Thomas, Horridge, Mark
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are now routinely utilized for the evaluation of trade policy reforms, yet they are typically quite highly aggregated, which limits their usefulness to...
Economic and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural, Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China
Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,
Verma, Monika, Hertel, Thomas, Preckel, Paul
There is a long and distinguished literature involving demand analysis using international cross-section data. Such models are widely used for predicting national per capita consumption. However,...
China's growth and the agricultural exports of Southern Africa:
Villoria, Nelson, Hertel, Thomas, Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
"The implications of China's growth for the development prospects of Sub-Saharan Africa have been the subject of recent attention. Interest in this topic is motivated by the increasing presence of...