Thomas Laubach

New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt

This paper discusses the current state of fiscal relations between the federal, state and local governments in the United States and suggests directions for improvement. The significant degree of...

Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in Iceland

Estimating the effects of government debt and deficits on Treasury yields is complicated by the need to isolate the effects of fiscal policy from other influences. To abstract from the effects of the...

Thomas Laubach, Michael Wise

This paper discusses the current state of product market competition in Iceland, including the legal and regulatory framework, and suggests directions for further improvement. Given the size of the...

HvrBase++: a phylogenetic database for primate species

Kohl, Jochen, Paulsen, Ingo, Laubach, Thomas, Radtke, Achim, Von Haeseler, Arndt

HvrBase++ is the improved and extended version of HvrBase. Extensions are made by adding more population-based sequence samples from all primates including humans. The current collection comprises...

Macroeconomic factors in the term structure of interest rates when agents learn

Thomas Laubach, Robert J. Tetlow, John C. Williams

Finance models of the term structure of interest rates have for a long time relied on unobserved factors as explanatory variables. In a seminal paper, Ang and Piazzesi (2003) have examined the...

HvrBase++: a phylogenetic database for primate species

Kohl, Jochen, Paulsen, Ingo, Laubach, Thomas, Radtke, Achim, Von Haeseler, Arndt

HvrBase++ is the improved and extended version of HvrBase. Extensions are made by adding more population-based sequence samples from all primates including humans. The current collection comprises...

Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy

Monetary policy in an estimated optimisation-based model with sticky prices and wages

We study the implications for optimal monetary policy of introducing habit formation in consumption into a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. Habit formation affects the model's endogenous...

Thomas Laubach, Jeffery D. Amato

This paper serves two purposes. First, it provides estimates of an optimisation-based equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. Second, the estimated model is used to analyse the welfare...

Forecast-based monetary policy

Thomas Laubach, Jeffery D. Amato

This article analyses the welfare consequences of delegating to the central bank the task of minimising deviations of forecasts of goal variables from their target values. The delegated objectives...

Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters....

Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters....

Rochelle Edge, Thomas Laubach

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult in real time to distinguish from transitory fluctuations....

The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Shifts in Trend MFP Growth: A DGE Analysis

Rochelle Edge, Thomas Laubach

Technology shocks, Optimal control, policy rules

Measuring the natural rate of interest

Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest -- the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies...

Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy

Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy

We study the implications for optimal monetary policy of introducing habit formation in consumption into a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. Habit formation affects the model's endogenous...

The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks

We investigate the implications of rule-of-thumb behaviour on the part of consumers or price setters for optimal monetary policy and simple interest rate rules. The existence of such behaviour leads...

Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth

This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky...

The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. In...

Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth

This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky...

Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. We analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth...

Amato, Jeffery D., Laubach, Thomas

Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages

Amato, Jeffery D., Laubach, Thomas

Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth

Edge, Rochelle M., Laubach, Thomas, Williams, John C.

Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty

The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about the true values...

The role of forecasts in monetary policy

Most central banks conduct monetary policy by setting targets for overnight interest rates. During the 1990s, central banks have tended to move these interest rates in small steps without reversing...

Signalling commitment with monetary and inflation targets

Forecasts of future economic developments play an important role for the monetary policy decisions of central banks. For example, forecasts of goal variables can help central banks achieve their...

Laubach, Thomas

Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy

Amato, Jeffery D., Laubach, Thomas

Wood, A history of central banking in Great Britain and the United States

Laubach, Thomas

Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies

Monetary policy in an estimated optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages

Unemployment

Forecast-based monetary policy

This paper serves two purposes. First, it provides estimates of an optimization-based equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. Second, the estimated model is used to analyze the welfare...

The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve

A number of central banks use (published or unpublished) forecasts of goal variables as key ingredients in their decisions for instrument settings. This use of forecasts is modelled as a particular...

The role of forecasts in monetary policy

Most central banks conduct monetary policy by setting targets for overnight interest rates. During the 1990s, central banks have tended to move these interest rates in small steps without reversing...

Disciplined discretion: the German and Swiss monetary targeting frameworks in operation

Forecasts of future economic developments play an important role for the monetary policy decisions of central banks. For example, forecasts of goal variables can help central banks achieve their...

Thomas Laubach, Adam S. Posen

Many observers have held up the records of price stability in Germany and in Switzerland as examples of the benefits of a monetary targeting regime. These claims have been juxtaposed in recent years...

Some comparative evidence on the effectiveness of inflation targeting

Thomas Laubach, Adam Posen

Does the adoption of an inflation target by a country have an effect on that country's rate of inflation and on inflation's interaction with real economic variables? Does inflation targeting alter...

Learning and Shifts in Trend Growth

Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach

Shifts in the underlying growth rate of productivity, such as occurred in the 1970s and the 1990s, are relatively rare and difficult to identify in real time. In this paper, we document that...

Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest

Several specifications of state-space models are used to obtain estimates of the NAIRU for the G7 except Japan, plus Australia, over the past 28 years. A Phillips curve-type regression is shown to...

Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams

The natural rate of interest-the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural rate and stable inflation-plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. Estimation...

WELFARE-MAXIMIZING MONETARY POLICY UNDER PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters....